On The Campaign Trail

4 June 1997

At the time of writing, there are forty-eight hours to go before the General Election polls open in Ireland. Opinion polls have shown a majority leaning towards the Fianna/Fail/Progressive Democrat "shower" coalition, but with a large number of 'undecideds', most of whom seem to be leaning towards the Fine Gael/Labour/Democratic Left "rainbow" coalition.

However it seems that neither coalition will achieve an outright majority of seats in the next Dáil, and that the composition of the next Government will be in the hands of independents and miscellaneous smaller parties.

At any rate, the party likely to sustain most damage on Friday is Labour. Given that last time they achieved their best result ever, coupled with the fact that the electorate tends to judge the outgoing party of Government harshly — and Labour was a member of both Governments formed since the last General Election — Labour looks likely to lose several seats this time.

It's likely then, that neither the shower nor the rainbow coalition will be in a position to form a Government on Monday. The only question remaining is whether the next government will consist of one or other of the existing coalition permutations supported by independents, or whether the post-count horse-trading will result in Labour once more changing sides in a naked bid to retain power.

Oops. I meant to say, 'in the National Interest'.

Already, despite the solemn pledges from Fianna Fail and Labour to the contrary, you can see the idea beginning to take shape in their minds, as both parties contemplate how to get out of the assurances they have given. As I write, I'm still not certain it will happen, but it would come as no surprise if it did.

The campaign has been a rather muted affair as viewed from a distance. Both sides have tried to present their fairly modest tax change proposals as radical changes, but the electorate has been singularly unimpressed. Northern Ireland reared its head for a while as an issue, but, as usual, not for long. Mary Harney, leader of the Progressive Democrats, put her foot in it by criticizing welfare payments to unmarried mothers, but recovered fairly well, and Bruton fumbled the ball on the timing of debates, demanding that Bertie Ahern debate him after a debate date had already been set.

The most disturbing thing however was the level of racism amongst the electorate towards foreign refugees, and the unwillingness of any of the candidates to stick their necks out in condemning such attitudes. Considering the history of our own country, this condemnation of 'economic migrants' is ironic to say the least.

Of course, since they don't have a vote, emigrants are an easy target in any country.

The most disappointing thing about the campaign to me personally has been the fact that, once again, the whole issue of votes for emigrants has received no attention. This has, in fact, been a very odd election for me to watch. I've been abroad before during an Irish election campaign — I was in England at the time — but I was still registered in Ireland, and had I chosen to, I could have hopped on a plane and cast my vote. As it happened, I chose not to, but this time I don't have the option, since I'm no longer on the electoral register. It is a very strange sensation, watching your country choose its Government and having no say in the process.

Still, my Senate ballot will be arriving in the mail soon, giving me some chance at payback. I'm not sure what I'll do when it arrives. I may cast a vote just for the pleasure of not voting for some of the candidates. On the other hand, I may vote for Dustin the Turkey.